Comparing Draft Experts Lottery Hits and Misses

During this time of year, a lot of writers attempt to make bold decisions and figure out who is going where. There are always some surprises in the draft and it’s interesting seeing who saw what coming. This is in no way an indictment on these analysts, they are well informed and the truth is it’s very hard to pick a good draft, one mistake early could lead to a lot of losses. I have used 4 different sports sites experts picks from the lottery, from the past 2 years, it is a small sample size but it’s 7 mock Drafts worth of hits and misses. The sites I used were; Bleacher Report, The Ringer, ESPN, CBS Sports. Hope you enjoy. BTW I purposely chose the worst pictures of them.

BLEACHER REPORT

Expert: Jonathan Wasserman

2017 Draft

1. Philadelphia Markelle Fultz

2. LA Lakers Lonzo Ball

3. Boston Celtics Jayson Tatum

4. Phoenix Suns Josh Jackson

5. Sacramento Kings De’Aaron Fox

6. Orlando Magic Dennis Smith Jr

7. Minnesota TWolves Jonathan Issac

8. NY Knicks Frank Ntilikina

9. Dallas Mavericks Zach Collins

10. Sacramento Kings Malik Monk

11. Charlotte Hornets Luke Kennard

12. Detroit Pistons Donavan Mitchell

13. Denver Nuggets Lauri Markkanen

14. Miami Heat John Collins

15. Portland Trailblazers DJ Wilson

First Miss: Dennis Smith Jr to Orlando at 6

Misses In the Lottery: 9

Spot On: Markelle Fultz, Lonzo Ball, Josh Jackson, De’Aaron Fox, Frank Ntilikina

2016 Draft

1. Philadelphia 76ers Ben Simmons

2. LA Lakers Brandon Ingram

3. Boston Celtics Kris Dunn

4. Phoenix Suns Marquese Chris

5. Minnesota TWolves Jamal Murray

6. New Orleans Pelicans Buddy Hield

7. Denver Nuggets Dragan Bender

8. Sacramento Kings Jaylen Brown

9. Toronto Raptors Domantas Sabonis

10. Milwaukee Bucks Deyonta Davis

11. Orlando Magic Jakob Poeltl

12. Utah Jazz Malik Beasley

13. Phoenix Suns Dejounte Murray

14. Chicago Bulls Wade Baldwin IV

15. Denver Nuggets Timothe Luwawu

First Miss: Jaylen Brown to Boston at 3

Misses in the Lottery: 12

Spot On: Ben Simmons, Brandon Ingram, Buddy Hield

THE RINGER

Experts: Kevin O’Connor, Danny Chau, Jonathan Tjarks/ The Ringer Staff

2017 Draft

1. Philadelphia 76ers Markelle Fultz

2. LA Lakers Lonzo Ball

3. Boston Celtics Jayson Tatum

4. Phoenix Suns De’Aaron Fox

5. Sacramento Kings Josh Jackson

6. Orlando Magic Jonathan Issac

7. Minnesota TWolves Lauri Markkanen

8. NY Knicks Donovan Mitchell

9. Dallas Mavericks Dennis Smith

10. Sacramento Kings Malik Monk

11. Charlotte Hornets Bam Adebayo

12. Detroit Pistons Luke Kennard

13. Denver Nuggets John Collins

14. NY Knicks Frank Ntilikina

15. Portland Trailblazers Zach Collins

First Miss: Josh Jackson to Phoenix Suns at 4

Misses in the Lottery: 7

Spot on: Markelle Fultz, Lonzo Ball, Jayson Tatum, Lauri Markkanen, Luke Kennard, Dennis Smith

2016 Draft

1. Philadelphia 76ers Ben Simmons

2. LA Lakers Brandon Ingram

3. Boston Celtics Dragan Bender

4. Phoenix Suns Marquese Chris

5. Minnesota TWolves Kris Dunn

6. New Orleans Pelicans Buddy Hield

7. Denver Nuggets Jaylen Brown

8. Sacramento Kings Jamal Murray

9. Toronto Raptors Timothe Luwawu

10. Milwaukee Bucks Denzel Valentine

11. Orlando Magic Jakob Poeltl

12. Atlanta Hawks Domantas Sabonis

13. Phoenix Suns Malik Beasley

14. Chicago Bulls Wade Baldwin IV

15. N/A

First Miss: Jaylen Brown to Celtics at 3

Misses in the Lottery: 10

Spot On: Ben Simmons, Brandon Ingram, Chris Dunn, Buddy Hield

ESPN

Expert: Chad Ford

2017

1. Philadelphia 76ers Markelle Fultz

2. LA Lakers Lonzo Ball

3. Boston Celtics Jayson Tatum

4. Phoenix Suns De’Aaron Fox

5. Sacramento Kings Josh Jackson

6. Orlando Magic Jonathan Issac

7. Minnesota TWolves Lauri Markkanen

8. NY Knicks Frank Ntilikina

9. Dallas Mavericks Dennis Smith Jr

10. Sacramento Kings Zach Collins

11. Charlotte Hornets Malik Monk

12. Detroit Pistons Luke Kennard

13. Denver Nuggets OG Anunoby

14. Miami Heat Donavan Mitchell

15. Portland Trailblazers Harry Giles

First Miss: Josh Jackson to Phoenix at 13

Misses in the Lottery: 5

Spot On: Markelle Fultz, Lonzo Ball, Jayson Tatum, Jonathan Issac, Lauri Markkanen Frank Ntilikina, Dennis Smith, Malik Monk, Zach Collins, Luke Kennard

2016

1. Philadelphia 76ers Ben Simmons

2. LA Lakers Brandon Ingram

3. Boston Celtics Jaylen Brown

4. Phoenix Suns Marquese Chris

5. Minnesota TWolves Kris Dunn

6. New Orleans Pelicans Jamal Murray

7. Denver Nuggets Dragan Bender

8. Sacramento Kings Buddy Hield

9. Toronto Raptors Domantas Sabonis

10. Milwaukee Bucks Dejounte Murray

11. Orlando Magic Skal Labissiere

12. Utah Jazz Jakob Poeltl

13. Phoenix Suns Henry Ellenson

14. Chicago Bulls Wade Baldwin

15. Denver Nuggets Furkan Korkmaz

First Miss: Dragan Bender to Phoenix Suns

Misses in the Lottery: 11

Spot On: Ben Simmons, Brandon Ingram, Jaylen Brown, Chris Dunn

CBS SPORTS

Expert: Reid Forgrave

2017

1. Philadelphia 76ers Markelle Fultz

2. LA Lakers Lonzo Ball

3. Boston Celtics Jayson Tatum

4. Phoenix Suns De’Aaron Fox

5. Sacramento Kings Josh Jackson

6. Orlando Magic Lauri Markkanen

7. Minnesota TWolves Jonathan Isaac

8. NY Knicks Malik Monk

9. Dallas Mavericks Frank Ntilikina

10. Sacramento Kings Dennis Smith

11. Charlotte Hornets Luke Kennard

12. Detroit Pistons Donovan Mitchell

13. Denver Nuggets Justin Jackson

14. Miami Heat Zach Collins

15. Portland Trailblazers Harry Giles

First Miss: Jonathan Issac to Orlando at7

Misses in the Lottery: 12

Spot On: Markelle Fultz, Lonzo Ball, Jayson Tatum

2016

N/A

65 out of 105 picks were wrong

The Experts had a 37.2% success rate with their picks.

They Averaged 5.8 Correct Picks Per Lottery

What’s really apparent here is that once one pick goes wrong it tends to screw up the rest of the draft. I don’t have espn insider so I couldn’t get access to Draft Express guru Jonathan Givony but I recently heard him say he got the first 11 picks of the 2017 draft right and that was a big accomplishment, it makes sense. This is very hard. Trying to sort out the bullshit from GMs trying to trick their colleagues and projecting trades is impossible. I’d say if someone got more than 8 right in a draft thats a big accomplishment. Chad Ford had 4 misses in the 2017 Lottery! That’s freakin amazing. Here are my reactions to each of the two drafts.

Reaction

2017

This draft was particularly hard to gauge, not only were there many smoke screen formed by the Celtics among others, but there were 41 trades out of the 60 picks! That’s insane. On top of that, it seems many people didn’t know where Donavan Mitchell would go The Ringer was as high as 8 on Mitchell and I saw one as low as 26. The big turning point in most of these was Jonathan Issac, many of the analysts had him going 7th and that threw a wrench in the whole thing for them. The best pick I saw out of the experts was Kyle Kuzma by Reid Forgrave, he surprisingly had a lot of late first round picks on the money.

2016

The speculation in this draft was that the Celtics would take Dragan Bender. Chad Ford was the only one who picked Jaylen Brown and the draft still ate him alive. Can’t blame The Ringer for the bad picks, it was their first year in business and they relied on the whole staff to make picks which probably messed it up. Chad Ford also shit the bed in 2016, this may be due to a sub par draft class after the top 5.

I’ll probably do a deeper dive into this but a lot of these guys switch sites and it’s hard to keep up. Hope you like it.

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