The Correlations Between Top 10 High School Recruits and The NBA Draft

In comparing high school basketball’s top prospects from 2007-2016 it makes sense that there would be a lot of correlations between the top 10 of each class with the top 10 of the draft. Chris Vernon made this point on the Ringer NBA show recently. Does this mean the players that fall out of the top 10 are usually steals, or is this indicative of players or who failed to meet their projected potential? Is it true at all? Let’s take a look.

***If the player is drafted as a one and done there will be no year next to his draft spot. I’m using 247Sports if anyone wants to reference these picks.

2007 High School Rankings

1. Eric Gordon NBA Draft. 7

2. OJ Mayo NBA Draft 3

3. Michael Beasley NBA Draft 2

4. Kevin Love NBA Draft 5

5. Derrick Rose NBA Draft 1

6. Kyle Singler NBA Draft 33(2011)

7. Donte Greene NBA Draft 28

8. Nick Calathes NBA Draft 45(2009)

9. Austin Freeman Not Drafted

10. JJ Hickson NBA Draft 19

Notables

14. James Harden NBA Draft 3(2009)

16. Blake Griffin NBA Draft Draft1(2009)

51. Jeff Teague NBA Draft 19(2009)

2008 High School Rankings

1. Brandon Jennings NBA Draft 10

2. BJ Mullens NBA Draft 24

3. Jrue Holiday NBA Draft 17

4. Samardo Samuels Not Drafted

5. Tyreke Evans NBA Draft 4

6. Demar DeRozan NBA Draft 9

7. Scotty Hopson Not Drafted

8. Greg Monroe NBA Draft 7(2010)

9. Al-Farouq Aminu NBA Draft 8(2010)

10. Ed Davis NBA Draft 13(2010)

Notables

12. Kemba Walker NBA Draft 9(2011)

42. Klay Thompson NBA Draft 11(2011)

69. Draymond Green NBA Draft 35(2012)

113. Marcus Morris NBA Draft 14(2011)

118. Markieff Morris NBA Draft 13(2011)

193. Paul George NBA Draft 10(2010)

2009 High School Rankings

1. Derrick Favors NBA Draft 3

2. John Wall NBA Draft 1

3. DeMarcus Cousins NBA Draft 5

4. Avery Bradley NBA Draft 19

5. John Henson NBA Draft 14(2012)

6. Xavier Henry NBA Draft 12

7. Jordan Hamilton NBA Draft 26(2011)

8. Renardo Sidney Not Drafted

9. Lance Stephenson NBA Draft 40

10. Keith Gallon NBA Draft 47

Notables

57. Kawhi Leonard NBA Draft 15(2011)

68. Eric Bledsoe NBA Draft 18

2010 High School Rankings

1. Harrison Barnes NBA Draft 7(2012)

2. Kyrie Irving NBA Draft 1

3. Josh Selby NBA Draft 49

4. Jared Sullinger NBA Draft 21(2012)

5. Brandon Knight NBA Draft 8

6. Tobias Harris NBA Draft 19

7. Perry Jones NBA Draft 28(2012)

8. Enes Kanter NBA Draft 3

9. Terrence Jones NBA Draft 18(2012)

10. Cj Leslie NBA Draft Not Drafted

Notables

12. Tristan Thompson NBA Draft 4

13. Will Barton NBA Draft 40(2012)

21. Dion Waiters NBA Draft 4(2012)

82. Shabazz Napier NBA Draft 24(2014)

136. Victor Oladipo NBA Draft 2(2013)

2011 High School Rankings

1. Anthony Davis NBA Draft 1

2. Austin Rivers NBA Draft 10

3. Michael Kidd-Gilchrist NBA Draft 2

4. Bradley Beal NBA Draft 3

5. Quincy Miller NBA Draft 38

6. Marquis Teague NBA Draft 29

7. James McAdoo Not Drafted

8. Lebryan Nash Not Drafted

9. Adonis Thomas Not Drafted

10. Cody Zeller NBA Draft 4(2013)

Notables

12. Kentavious Caldwell Pope NBA Draft 8(2013)

26. Michael Carter-Williams NBA Draft 11(2013)

29. Rodney Hood NBA Draft 23(2014)

31. Otto Porter NBA Draft 3(2013)

2012 High School Rankings

1. Nerlens Noel NBA Draft 6

2. Shabazz Muhammad NBA Draft 14

3. Kyle Anderson NBA Draft 30(2014)

4. Isaiah Austin Not Drafted

5. Steven Adams NBA Draft 12

6. Anthony Bennett NBA Draft 1

7. Alex Poythress Not Drafted

8. Kaleb Tarczewski Not Drafted

9. Grant Jarrett NBA Draft 40

10. Marcus Smart NBA Draft 6

Notables

…..

2013 High School Rankings

1. Andrew Wiggins NBA Draft 1

2. Julius Randle NBA Draft 7

3. Aaron Gordon NBA Draft 4

4. Jabari Parker NBA Draft 2

5. Andrew Harrison NBA Draft 44(2015)

6. Aaron Harrison Not Drafted

7. Chris Walker Not Drafted

8. Kasey Hill NBA Not Drafted

9. James Young NBA Draft 17

10. Dakari Johnson NBA Draft 48(2015)

Notables

13. Joel Embiid NBA Draft 3

17. Bobby Portis NBA Draft 22(2015)

29. Terry Rozier NBA Draft 16(2015)

51. Zach Lavine NBA Draft 13

Any players who graduated high school after 2014 are potentially still in college.

2014 High School Rankings

1. Jahlil Okafor NBA Draft 3

2. Emmanuel Mudiay NBA Draft 7

3. Stanley Johnson NBA Draft 8

4. Cliff Alexander Not Drafted

5. Karl Anthony Towns NBA Draft 1

6. Myles Turner NBA Draft 11

7. Kelly Oubre NBA Draft 15

8. Tyus Jones NBA Draft 24

9. Justin Jackson NBA Draft 15(2017)

10. Rashad Vaughn NBA Draft 17

Notables

11. Kevon Looney NBA Draft 30

13. Justice Winslow NBA Draft 10

16. D’Angelo Russell NBA Draft 2

22. Devin Booker NBA Draft 13

100. Jordan Bell NBA Draft 38(2017)

2015 High School Rankings

1. Ben Simmons NBA Draft 1

2. Skal Labissiere NBA Draft 28

3. Brandon Ingram NBA Draft 2

4. Jaylen Brown NBA Draft 3

5. Cheick Diallo NBA Draft 33

6. Diamond Stone NBA Draft 40

7. Ivan Rabb NBA Draft 35

8. Malik Newman Proj Top 50

9. Henry Ellenson NBA Draft 18

10. Jamal Murray NBA Draft 7

Notables

29. Donovan Mitchell NBA Draft 13(2017)

49. Dejounte Murray NBA Draft 29

2016 High School Rankings

1. Josh Jackson NBA Draft 4

2. Harry Giles NBA Draft 20

3. Lonzo Ball NBA Draft 2

4. Jayson Tatum NBA Draft 3

5. Markelle Fultz NBA Draft 1

6. De’Aaron Fox NBA Draft 5

7. Dennis Smith Jr NBA Draft 9

8. Jonathan Issac NBA Draft 6

9. Bam Adebayo NBA Draft 14

10. Thon Maker NBA Draft 10(2016)

Notables

11. Malik Monk NBA Draft 11

The Numbers

45/100 Top 10 High School Recruits Were Selected in The Top 10 Of An NBA Draft

The Most Top 10 High School Recruits Selected In The Top 10 of The Draft Was 9(2017)

The Least Amount Selected Was 3(2009,2012)

Between 2007 And 2014 13 Top High School Recruits Were Not Drafted

Three Years Had The Most Undrafted Top 10 Recruits With 3(2011,2012,2013)

First of all, besides 2007,it seems as though the player rankings are getting more accurate, while 2016 only had 4 top ten recruits get drafted top 10, it should be noted that all of the players who declared for the draft were drafted from that group. While the #1 recruit becoming the #1 draft pick is not likely, they were always drafted in the top 10 during this timeframe(2007-2016). This sheds some light on what to expect come draft night. It would seem scouting sites like 247sports are evolving into better evaluators of talent, which means the NBA as a whole will benefit.

By the way, I definitely missed a bunch of notables, but when you scroll through over 2000 names, shit happens.

Leave a Reply

Fill in your details below or click an icon to log in:

WordPress.com Logo

You are commenting using your WordPress.com account. Log Out /  Change )

Google+ photo

You are commenting using your Google+ account. Log Out /  Change )

Twitter picture

You are commenting using your Twitter account. Log Out /  Change )

Facebook photo

You are commenting using your Facebook account. Log Out /  Change )

Connecting to %s